— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
43¢
eps
31¢
wn2
22¢
icon
19¢
aifs
5¢
hres
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,700 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape