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KMSP / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 16 · 02:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
31%
WN2
22%
ICON
19%
AIFS
5%
HRES
4%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 17.6¢Risks 17.60u
VS
HRESNO 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.40u · HRES −82.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00AIFS Single: 19.4% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00AIFS Single: 19.4% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.1% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.2% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.2% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.0% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.6% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.7% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.0% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.3% · 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00IFS HRES: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00IFS HRES: 13.3% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00IFS HRES: 31.5% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 19.5% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00IFS HRES: 4.3% · 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:00ICON: 18.8% · 2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:0009-14 10:5709-15 00:2909-16 02:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:004.2%58.1%25.2%13.1%33.0%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:004.2%58.1%25.2%13.1%33.0%
2026-09-14T12:27:39+00:004.2%58.1%25.2%13.1%33.0%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:004.2%58.1%25.2%13.1%33.0%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:006.7%58.1%25.2%13.1%33.0%
2026-09-14T14:43:30+00:006.7%58.1%25.2%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T15:28:39+00:006.7%59.1%25.2%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:006.7%59.1%25.2%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T16:58:57+00:006.7%59.1%25.2%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:006.7%59.1%12.0%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T18:29:11+00:006.7%59.1%12.0%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:006.7%59.1%12.0%13.3%33.0%
2026-09-14T19:59:21+00:0017.0%59.1%12.0%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:0017.0%59.1%12.0%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-14T21:29:32+00:0017.0%59.1%12.0%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-14T22:14:37+00:0017.0%59.1%12.0%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:0017.0%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-14T23:44:51+00:0017.0%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-15T00:29:57+00:0017.0%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:0017.0%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-15T02:00:10+00:0019.4%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:0019.4%54.1%11.6%31.5%35.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:009.2%43.2%23.7%19.5%15.8%
2026-09-15T17:04:23+00:009.2%43.2%23.0%19.5%15.8%
2026-09-15T17:49:30+00:009.2%43.2%23.0%19.5%15.8%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:009.2%43.2%23.0%19.5%15.8%
2026-09-15T19:19:44+00:009.2%43.2%23.0%19.5%15.8%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:004.3%43.2%23.0%19.5%18.8%
2026-09-15T20:49:55+00:004.3%43.2%23.0%19.5%18.8%
2026-09-15T21:35:05+00:004.3%43.2%23.0%19.5%18.8%
2026-09-15T22:20:10+00:004.3%43.2%23.0%19.5%18.8%
2026-09-15T23:05:16+00:004.3%43.2%23.0%4.3%18.8%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:004.3%30.9%22.3%4.3%18.8%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:004.3%30.9%22.3%4.3%18.8%
2026-09-16T01:20:37+00:004.3%30.9%22.3%4.3%18.8%
2026-09-16T02:05:49+00:005.2%30.9%22.3%4.3%18.8%
2026-09-16T02:51:00+00:005.2%30.9%22.3%4.3%18.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.8°F2026-09-15 15:00Pending
National Blend43%71.5°F6.0°F2026-09-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%70.7°F3.6°F2026-09-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%69.1°F4.5°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
ICON19%66.5°F6.8°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%63.8°F5.3°F2026-09-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES4%61.1°F6.6°F2026-09-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 14 · 10:57 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗