— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
96¢
aifs
73¢
wn2
62¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
56¢
hres
52¢
eps
47¢
icon
33¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F30¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,107 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape