KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

62%

52%

47%

33%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

ICONNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.00u · ICON −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	59.4%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	59.4%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	64.2%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	62.6%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	62.6%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	62.6%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	62.6%	84.1%	50.0%	32.2%	55.4%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	62.6%	84.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	62.6%	83.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	62.6%	83.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	62.6%	83.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	59.6%	83.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	59.6%	83.1%	50.0%	26.9%	55.4%
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	22.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	22.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	22.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	61.2%	55.6%	50.0%	47.1%	22.3%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	65.3%	55.6%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	65.3%	55.6%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	65.3%	55.6%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	65.3%	55.6%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	65.3%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	65.3%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	65.3%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	65.3%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	63.4%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	63.4%	55.3%	50.0%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	46.8%	19.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	46.8%	19.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	52.1%	33.0%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	52.1%	33.0%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	52.1%	33.0%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	73.0%	47.4%	61.6%	52.1%	33.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	73%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	66.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	65.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	65.3°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗