— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
32¢
aifs
13¢
hres
9¢
wn2
6¢
eps
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 12,600 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.874 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape