KMSP / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

13%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.9¢Risks 18.85u

EPSNO 81.2¢Risks 81.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.15u · EPS −81.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	50.0%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T08:52:40+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	50.0%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T09:37:50+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	50.0%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T10:23:00+00:00	14.4%	36.8%	50.0%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T11:08:07+00:00	14.4%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T11:53:16+00:00	14.4%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	14.4%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T13:23:27+00:00	14.4%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T14:09:46+00:00	12.8%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T14:54:55+00:00	12.8%	29.9%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T15:40:08+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	41.7%	33.8%	16.1%
2026-09-16T16:25:14+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	41.7%	37.5%	60.5%
2026-09-16T17:10:21+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	25.8%	37.5%	60.5%
2026-09-16T17:55:36+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	25.8%	37.5%	60.5%
2026-09-16T18:40:46+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	25.8%	37.5%	60.5%
2026-09-16T19:25:51+00:00	12.8%	29.0%	25.8%	37.5%	60.5%
2026-09-16T20:10:57+00:00	14.8%	29.0%	25.8%	19.3%	60.5%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	14.8%	29.0%	25.8%	19.3%	60.5%
2026-09-16T21:41:06+00:00	14.8%	29.0%	25.8%	19.3%	60.5%
2026-09-16T22:26:11+00:00	14.8%	29.0%	25.8%	19.3%	60.5%
2026-09-17T03:42:33+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	17.3%	12.6%	60.5%
2026-09-17T04:27:41+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	17.3%	12.6%	60.5%
2026-09-17T05:12:47+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T07:28:06+00:00	13.5%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T08:13:11+00:00	22.1%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	22.1%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T09:43:24+00:00	22.1%	30.9%	16.7%	12.6%	27.8%
2026-09-17T10:28:40+00:00	22.1%	30.9%	16.7%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T11:14:05+00:00	22.1%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T11:59:13+00:00	22.1%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	22.1%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T13:29:23+00:00	22.1%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	21.0%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T15:00:50+00:00	21.0%	3.8%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	19.8%	17.1%	27.8%
2026-09-17T16:31:12+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	19.8%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T18:01:25+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T18:46:34+00:00	21.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T19:31:39+00:00	13.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	13.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	13.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	13.0%	4.2%	9.0%	17.1%	32.4%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	13.0%	4.2%	9.0%	9.2%	32.4%
2026-09-17T23:17:05+00:00	13.0%	5.3%	5.9%	9.2%	32.4%
2026-09-18T00:02:10+00:00	13.0%	5.3%	5.9%	9.2%	32.4%
2026-09-18T00:47:17+00:00	13.0%	5.3%	5.9%	9.2%	32.4%
2026-09-18T01:32:23+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	5.9%	9.2%	32.4%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	13.4%	5.3%	5.9%	9.2%	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	69.4°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	66.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	63.7°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	65.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260923-TMAX-GE73
Opened Sep 16 · 08:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 73°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗