— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
100¢
wn2
91¢
eps
83¢
aifs
64¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
55¢
icon
51¢
hres
43¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,107 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape