KMSP / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

83%

64%

51%

43%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.6¢Risks 66.65u

HRESNO 33.4¢Risks 33.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.35u · HRES −33.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	36.9%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	36.9%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	36.9%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	43.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	43.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	43.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	61.7%	87.2%	82.5%	61.3%	43.3%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	70.0%	87.2%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	70.0%	87.2%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	70.0%	87.2%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	70.0%	87.2%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	70.0%	86.9%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	70.0%	86.9%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	70.0%	86.9%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	70.0%	86.9%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	68.3%	86.9%	82.5%	84.5%	43.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	68.3%	86.8%	81.9%	84.6%	43.2%
2026-09-24T02:56:31+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	89.7%	42.6%	42.1%
2026-09-24T03:41:54+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	89.7%	42.6%	42.1%
2026-09-24T04:27:00+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	89.7%	42.6%	42.1%
2026-09-24T05:12:06+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	90.7%	42.6%	51.2%
2026-09-24T05:57:15+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	90.7%	42.6%	51.2%
2026-09-24T06:42:26+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	90.7%	42.6%	51.2%
2026-09-24T07:27:54+00:00	63.5%	83.3%	90.7%	42.6%	51.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
ICON	51%	63.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	62.8°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗