— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
10¢
hres
4¢
aifs
3¢
icon
3¢
wn2
2¢
eps
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F18¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,157 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-09-17T10:28:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape