Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 81°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTEDThe models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Blend | 10% | 75.0°F | 4.3°F | 2026-09-17 00:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 4% | 69.7°F | 6.2°F | 2026-09-17 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 3% | 70.2°F | 5.5°F | 2026-09-17 00:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 3% | 61.8°F | 9.8°F | 2026-09-17 00:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 2% | 69.8°F | 5.1°F | 2026-09-16 18:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 2% | 72.1°F | 4.0°F | 2026-09-16 00:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 81°F · KMSP
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC
Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Thu Sep 24
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗