daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Fri Sep 25

Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 25

64¢

american -179 · decimal 1.56

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

now		100¢
rrfs		92¢
wn2		85¢
aifs		84¢
hres		70¢
ndfd		59¢
nbm		59¢
eps		54¢
hrrr		29¢
icon		13¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F1¢

64–65°F5¢

66–67°F13¢

68–69°F23¢

70–71°F26¢

72–73°F19¢

74–75°F9¢

76–77°F3¢

78–79°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,009 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.192.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape