KMSP / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

70%

54%

13%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.0¢Risks 49.00u

ICONNO 51.0¢Risks 51.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.00u · ICON −51.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T07:33:44+00:00	35.2%	64.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	35.2%	64.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T09:04:15+00:00	35.2%	64.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T09:49:20+00:00	35.2%	64.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T10:34:40+00:00	35.2%	64.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T11:20:05+00:00	35.2%	53.6%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T12:05:15+00:00	35.2%	53.6%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T12:50:20+00:00	35.2%	53.6%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T13:35:26+00:00	37.9%	53.6%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	37.3%	53.6%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T15:07:11+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	11.8%
2026-09-18T16:37:31+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:37+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:51+00:00	37.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	44.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	44.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:05+00:00	44.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	44.3%	54.8%	49.2%	44.2%	73.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:16+00:00	44.3%	54.8%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:21+00:00	44.3%	53.6%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	44.3%	53.6%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:33+00:00	44.3%	53.6%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:38+00:00	52.9%	53.6%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	52.9%	53.6%	49.2%	48.1%	73.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	52.7%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	52.7%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	48.4%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	61.0%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	61.0%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	61.0%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	61.0%	45.0%	49.2%	50.7%	45.8%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	61.0%	45.0%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	61.0%	40.5%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	61.0%	40.5%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	61.0%	40.5%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	56.0%	40.5%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	56.0%	40.5%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	45.8%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	51.7%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	51.7%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	51.7%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	56.0%	39.1%	49.2%	60.2%	51.7%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	66.6%	39.1%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	66.6%	39.1%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	66.6%	39.1%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	66.6%	39.1%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	66.6%	39.1%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	66.6%	34.0%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	66.6%	34.0%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	66.6%	34.0%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	65.0%	34.0%	49.2%	53.9%	51.7%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	84.1%	70.3%	42.1%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	84.1%	70.3%	42.1%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	84.1%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	70.6%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00	75.4%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	75.4%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00	75.4%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	75.4%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	75.4%	53.7%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	75.4%	54.3%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	75.4%	54.3%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	75.4%	54.3%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	84.5%	54.3%	81.9%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	84.4%	54.3%	81.8%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	84.4%	54.3%	81.8%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	84.4%	54.3%	81.8%	70.3%	31.0%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	84.4%	54.3%	81.8%	70.3%	12.8%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	84.4%	54.3%	85.2%	70.3%	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	73.2°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.6°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	72.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	66.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗