— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
61¢
nbm
55¢
wn2
53¢
hres
43¢
icon
33¢
eps
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,010 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.203 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape