KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

53%

43%

33%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.40u · EPS −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	49.3%	25.5%	52.8%	22.0%	13.7%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	49.3%	25.5%	52.8%	22.0%	13.7%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	49.3%	25.5%	52.8%	22.0%	13.7%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	40.7%	25.5%	52.8%	22.0%	13.7%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	40.7%	25.5%	52.8%	22.1%	13.6%
2026-09-20T15:18:52+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	13.6%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	13.6%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	40.7%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	55.0%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	55.0%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	55.0%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	55.0%	24.4%	52.8%	22.1%	32.6%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	55.0%	24.4%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	55.0%	20.5%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	55.0%	20.5%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	55.0%	20.5%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	60.7%	20.5%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	60.7%	20.5%	52.8%	43.0%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	61%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	73.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	72.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	69.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE74
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗