— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
20¢
eps
7¢
nbm
6¢
wn2
4¢
aifs
3¢
ndfd
3¢
icon
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,960 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.204 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape