KMSP / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.8¢Risks 4.92u

ICONNO 90.1¢Risks 45.07u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.07u · ICON −45.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00	13.6%	2.9%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T11:31:35+00:00	13.6%	1.3%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	13.6%	1.3%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	13.6%	1.3%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.1%	4.4%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	4.4%
2026-09-20T15:18:52+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	4.4%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	4.4%
2026-09-20T16:49:13+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T19:04:31+00:00	9.4%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	17.0%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T20:34:42+00:00	17.0%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	17.0%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	17.0%	1.3%	16.0%	4.2%	14.3%
2026-09-20T22:49:59+00:00	17.0%	1.3%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	17.0%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	17.0%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T01:05:24+00:00	17.0%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T01:50:30+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	14.3%
2026-09-21T04:51:11+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T05:36:18+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T07:06:31+00:00	20.9%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T07:51:36+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	16.0%	12.8%	4.1%
2026-09-21T10:52:14+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	16.0%	1.7%	4.1%
2026-09-21T11:37:54+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	16.0%	1.7%	4.1%
2026-09-21T12:23:02+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	16.0%	1.7%	4.1%
2026-09-21T13:08:07+00:00	6.6%	0.1%	16.0%	1.7%	4.1%
2026-09-21T13:53:13+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.0%	1.7%	4.1%
2026-09-21T14:40:19+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	4.2%
2026-09-21T15:25:32+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	4.2%
2026-09-21T16:10:47+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	4.2%
2026-09-21T16:55:52+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	12.5%
2026-09-21T17:40:58+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	12.5%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	12.5%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	5.5%	0.1%	16.1%	1.7%	12.5%
2026-09-21T19:56:20+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.1%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-21T20:41:31+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.1%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-21T21:26:37+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.1%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-21T22:11:43+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.1%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-21T22:56:48+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.1%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	2.8%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T01:57:13+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T02:42:29+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T04:12:50+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	12.5%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	19.2%
2026-09-22T05:43:25+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	19.2%
2026-09-22T06:28:41+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	19.2%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	16.2%	7.2%	19.2%
2026-09-22T07:59:13+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T10:14:52+00:00	2.4%	0.1%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T11:00:02+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T11:45:11+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T12:30:16+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T13:15:21+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T14:00:29+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.2%
2026-09-22T14:47:14+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.3%
2026-09-22T15:32:24+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.3%
2026-09-22T16:17:41+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	19.3%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T18:32:57+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T19:18:06+00:00	2.4%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T20:03:11+00:00	2.3%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T20:48:16+00:00	2.3%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T21:33:24+00:00	2.3%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T22:18:32+00:00	2.3%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T23:03:39+00:00	2.3%	7.7%	16.2%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-22T23:48:45+00:00	2.3%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T00:33:51+00:00	2.3%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T01:18:59+00:00	2.3%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T02:49:19+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:37+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	23.6%	0.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:54+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	19.6%	0.1%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	19.6%	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:35:10+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	19.6%	0.1%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	4.5%	19.6%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	20%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	71.6°F	5.4°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	71.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	72.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	64.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗