— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
95¢
eps
79¢
nbm
68¢
rrfs
66¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
53¢
hres
32¢
icon
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F27¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,419 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.558 vs climatology 9.098.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape