KMSP / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

79%

53%

32%

15%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

ICONNO 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.70u · ICON −44.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T03:11:45+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	91.9%	75.0%	31.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	91.9%	75.0%	31.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	91.9%	75.0%	46.9%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	90.7%	75.0%	46.9%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	90.7%	75.0%	46.9%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	53.4%	86.6%	90.7%	75.0%	46.9%
2026-09-26T07:43:04+00:00	68.5%	86.6%	90.7%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	68.5%	86.6%	90.7%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	68.5%	86.6%	90.7%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	68.5%	86.6%	90.7%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	68.5%	86.6%	90.7%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	68.5%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	68.5%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	68.5%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T14:32:10+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	46.9%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	37.9%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	37.9%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	37.9%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	66.4%	37.9%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-26T22:48:46+00:00	60.8%	89.8%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	60.8%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	60.8%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	60.8%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	37.9%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	93.2%	30.5%	61.2%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	92.1%	30.5%	61.2%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	92.1%	30.5%	61.2%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	48.2%	90.6%	92.1%	30.5%	61.2%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	54.8%	90.6%	92.1%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	54.8%	90.6%	92.1%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	54.8%	90.6%	92.1%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	54.8%	90.6%	92.1%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	54.8%	90.6%	92.1%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	54.8%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	54.8%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	54.8%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T14:40:08+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	61.2%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	93.3%	51.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	94.0%	51.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	94.0%	51.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	49.0%	85.5%	94.0%	51.0%	13.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	59.5%	85.5%	94.0%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	59.5%	85.5%	94.0%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	59.5%	85.5%	94.0%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	59.5%	85.5%	94.0%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	59.5%	85.5%	94.0%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	59.5%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	59.5%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	59.5%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	13.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	96.2%	38.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	94.6%	38.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	94.6%	38.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	54.8%	80.8%	94.6%	38.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	53.9%	80.8%	94.6%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	53.9%	80.8%	94.6%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	53.9%	80.8%	94.6%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	53.9%	80.8%	94.6%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	53.9%	80.8%	94.6%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	53.9%	79.2%	95.3%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	53.9%	79.2%	95.3%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	53.9%	79.2%	95.3%	31.5%	15.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	53.0%	79.2%	95.2%	31.5%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	71.1°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	68.8°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260929-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗