— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
92¢
hres
86¢
icon
82¢
eps
68¢
rrfs
58¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F32¢
78–79°F25¢
80–81°F10¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,471 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.558 vs climatology 9.081.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-26T14:32:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape