KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

92%

86%

82%

68%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.0¢Risks 83.00u

EPSNO 17.0¢Risks 17.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.00u · EPS −17.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T14:32:10+00:00	61.0%	62.7%	86.2%	84.5%	40.0%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	40.0%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	40.0%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	94.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	94.3%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	94.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	61.0%	62.9%	86.2%	84.5%	94.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	73.4%	62.9%	86.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	73.4%	62.9%	86.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	73.4%	62.9%	86.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	73.4%	62.9%	86.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:46+00:00	73.4%	62.9%	86.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	73.4%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	73.4%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	73.4%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	94.3%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	92.2%	75.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	88.8%	75.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	88.8%	75.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	69.8%	64.2%	88.8%	75.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	80.1%	64.2%	88.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	80.1%	64.2%	88.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	80.1%	64.2%	88.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	80.1%	64.2%	88.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	80.1%	64.2%	88.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	80.1%	66.9%	90.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	80.1%	66.9%	90.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	80.1%	66.9%	90.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	82.6%	66.9%	90.8%	80.7%	77.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.0%	78.9%	84.7%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.0%	78.9%	84.7%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.0%	78.9%	84.7%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.9%	78.9%	82.6%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.9%	78.9%	82.6%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.9%	78.9%	82.6%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	89.4%	68.2%	96.9%	78.9%	82.6%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	96.9%	86.3%	82.6%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	96.9%	86.3%	82.6%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	96.9%	86.3%	82.6%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	96.9%	86.3%	82.6%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.6%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	93.1%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	92.5%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	92.5%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	92.5%	68.2%	97.8%	86.3%	82.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	76.5°F	4.2°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	75.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	73.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	72.2°F	3.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE71
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗