daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Sep 30

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Sep 30

23¢

american +341 · decimal 4.41

on the tape

79°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 79°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		57¢
wn2		46¢
aifs		42¢
hres		40¢
nbm		26¢
ndfd		25¢
eps		14¢
icon		10¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F1¢

72–73°F8¢

74–75°F22¢

76–77°F32¢

78–79°F25¢

80–81°F10¢

82–83°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,471 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.558 vs climatology 9.081.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape