KMSP / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 30 · 07:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

42%

40%

14%

10%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.5¢Risks 28.45u

ICONNO 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.55u · ICON −71.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T08:13:26+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	7.4%	17.9%	7.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:37+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	7.4%	17.9%	7.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:42+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	7.4%	17.9%	7.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:47+00:00	4.7%	0.4%	7.4%	17.9%	7.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:54+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	6.7%	17.9%	9.4%
2026-09-24T20:18:02+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	6.7%	17.9%	9.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	6.7%	17.9%	9.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	6.7%	17.9%	9.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:18+00:00	9.8%	0.1%	6.7%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:25+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:44+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:52+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T02:18:59+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	9.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	12.2%	23.1%	28.7%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00	8.5%	2.4%	13.1%	23.1%	28.7%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00	8.5%	2.4%	13.1%	23.1%	28.7%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00	8.5%	2.4%	13.1%	23.1%	28.7%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	13.1%	23.1%	28.7%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	12.6%	23.1%	28.6%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	12.6%	23.1%	28.6%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	12.6%	23.1%	28.6%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	12.6%	23.1%	11.9%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	17.7%	23.1%	11.9%
2026-09-25T18:08:50+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	17.7%	23.1%	11.9%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	3.9%	2.4%	17.7%	23.1%	11.9%
2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00	16.1%	2.4%	17.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	16.1%	2.4%	17.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	16.1%	2.4%	17.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	16.1%	2.4%	17.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-25T22:40:33+00:00	16.1%	2.4%	17.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	16.1%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	16.1%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T00:55:54+00:00	16.1%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T01:41:05+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T02:26:25+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	11.9%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	13.7%	17.7%	2.6%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	15.3%	17.7%	2.6%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	15.3%	17.7%	2.6%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	35.8%	2.6%	15.3%	17.7%	2.6%
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00	9.4%	2.6%	15.3%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	9.4%	2.6%	15.3%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	9.4%	2.6%	15.3%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	9.4%	2.6%	15.3%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	9.4%	2.6%	15.3%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	9.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	9.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	9.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.3%	2.6%
2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00	7.4%	4.7%	17.4%	28.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	2.6%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	45.8%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	45.8%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	45.8%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	7.4%	4.5%	17.4%	28.2%	45.8%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	13.6%	4.5%	17.4%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	13.6%	4.5%	17.4%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	13.6%	4.5%	17.4%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	13.6%	4.5%	17.4%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-26T22:48:47+00:00	13.6%	4.5%	17.4%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	13.6%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	13.6%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	13.6%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	45.8%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	27.1%	18.5%	9.6%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	20.8%	18.5%	9.6%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	20.8%	18.5%	9.6%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	11.4%	4.3%	20.8%	18.5%	9.6%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	16.3%	4.3%	20.8%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	16.3%	4.3%	20.8%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	16.3%	4.3%	20.8%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	16.3%	4.3%	20.8%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	16.3%	4.3%	20.8%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	16.3%	5.3%	20.0%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	16.3%	5.3%	20.0%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	16.3%	5.3%	20.0%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	18.6%	5.3%	20.0%	18.1%	9.6%
2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	20.0%	18.1%	9.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	20.0%	18.1%	9.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	20.0%	18.1%	9.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	20.0%	18.1%	3.6%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	23.2%	18.1%	3.6%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	23.2%	18.1%	3.6%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	18.6%	5.4%	23.2%	18.1%	3.6%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	12.2%	5.4%	23.2%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	12.2%	5.4%	23.2%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	12.2%	5.4%	23.2%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	12.2%	5.4%	23.2%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	12.2%	5.4%	23.2%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	12.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	12.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	12.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	3.6%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	24.9%	8.8%	10.6%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	31.3%	8.8%	10.6%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	31.3%	8.8%	10.6%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	19.2%	4.7%	31.3%	8.8%	10.6%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	25.9%	4.7%	31.3%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	25.9%	4.7%	31.3%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	25.9%	4.7%	31.3%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	25.9%	4.7%	31.3%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	25.9%	4.7%	31.3%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	25.9%	4.0%	30.6%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	25.9%	4.0%	30.6%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	25.9%	4.0%	30.6%	12.7%	10.6%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	30.6%	12.6%	10.6%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	30.6%	12.6%	10.6%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	30.6%	12.6%	10.6%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	30.6%	12.6%	10.6%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	34.6%	12.6%	9.1%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	34.6%	12.6%	9.1%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	34.6%	12.6%	9.1%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	25.1%	4.0%	34.6%	12.6%	9.1%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	34.6%	19.7%	9.1%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	34.6%	19.7%	9.1%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	34.6%	19.7%	9.1%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	34.6%	19.7%	9.1%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	33.3%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	40.0%	19.7%	9.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	43.3%	19.7%	11.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	43.3%	19.7%	11.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	43.3%	19.7%	11.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	31.6%	4.0%	43.3%	19.7%	11.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	36.5%	4.0%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	36.5%	4.0%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	36.5%	4.0%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	36.5%	4.0%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	36.5%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	36.5%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	36.5%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	36.5%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	40.2%	13.8%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	40.2%	13.8%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	40.2%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	11.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	40.2%	13.7%	43.3%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	40.2%	13.7%	39.7%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	40.2%	13.7%	39.7%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	40.2%	13.7%	39.7%	43.6%	24.8%
2026-09-29T19:28:14+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	39.7%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	39.7%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	39.7%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	39.7%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	39.7%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	37.4%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	24.8%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	38.5%	39.5%	10.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	46.5%	39.5%	10.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	46.5%	39.5%	10.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	46.5%	39.5%	10.4%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	42.2%	13.7%	46.5%	39.5%	10.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	46%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	77.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	77.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	74.9°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	74.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20260930-TMAX-GE79
Opened Sep 24 · 08:13 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗