— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
99¢
aifs
98¢
wn2
98¢
icon
98¢
eps
95¢
nbm
68¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F27¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,422 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.737 vs climatology 9.081.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape