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KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
>99%
AIFS
98%
WN2
98%
ICON
98%
EPS
95%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u
VS
EPSNO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.74u · EPS −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00AIFS Single: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.7% · 2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.7% · 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.9% · 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.4% · 2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00IFS HRES: 99.2% · 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:00ICON: 81.8% · 2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:00ICON: 97.8% · 2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:0009-25 03:0409-25 10:3509-25 17:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T03:04:20+00:0090.2%87.4%97.1%99.2%81.8%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:0090.2%87.4%97.1%99.2%81.8%
2026-09-25T04:34:51+00:0090.2%87.4%97.1%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T05:19:59+00:0090.2%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:0090.2%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:0090.2%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T07:35:18+00:0097.6%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:0097.6%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T09:05:30+00:0097.6%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:0097.6%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:0097.6%87.4%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T11:20:47+00:0097.6%94.9%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T12:05:53+00:0097.6%94.9%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T12:50:58+00:0097.6%94.9%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:0098.4%94.9%97.5%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:0098.4%94.7%97.4%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T15:08:12+00:0098.4%94.7%97.4%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:0098.4%94.9%97.4%99.2%97.8%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:0098.4%94.9%97.4%99.2%98.0%
2026-09-25T17:23:31+00:0098.4%94.9%98.4%99.2%98.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES>99%78.9°F6.4°F2026-09-24 12:00Pending
AIFS Single98%74.9°F5.3°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 298%73.2°F4.5°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
ICON98%77.7°F6.9°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble95%70.6°F4.3°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
National Blend68%66.0°F5.5°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.8°F2026-09-25 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗