— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
78¢
aifs
58¢
wn2
55¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
43¢
hres
31¢
icon
26¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,521 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.067.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape