KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

55%

31%

26%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.0¢Risks 51.95u

ICONNO 48.0¢Risks 48.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.05u · ICON −48.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	62.2%	38.5%	57.5%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	62.2%	38.5%	57.5%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	62.2%	38.5%	25.7%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	54.7%	38.5%	25.7%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	54.7%	38.5%	25.7%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	60.4%	84.1%	54.7%	38.5%	25.7%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	53.4%	84.1%	54.7%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	53.4%	84.1%	54.7%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	53.4%	84.1%	54.7%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	53.4%	84.1%	54.7%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	53.4%	84.1%	54.7%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	53.4%	78.2%	55.0%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	53.4%	78.2%	55.0%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	53.4%	78.2%	55.0%	31.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	57.7%	78.2%	55.0%	31.0%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	65.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗