— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
56¢
ndfd
55¢
aifs
46¢
hres
41¢
wn2
36¢
nbm
30¢
icon
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F17¢
62–63°F29¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,472 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.735 vs climatology 9.067.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape