KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

41%

36%

16%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

ICONNO 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.25u · ICON −64.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00	78.0%	72.0%	49.1%	41.1%	79.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	79.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	79.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	65.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	65.2%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	65.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	49.1%	41.1%	65.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	49.1%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	49.1%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	49.1%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	49.1%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:47+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	49.1%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	73.9%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	65.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	46.5%	42.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	59.6%	42.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	59.6%	42.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	48.5%	72.1%	59.6%	42.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	57.2%	72.1%	59.6%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	57.2%	72.1%	59.6%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	57.2%	72.1%	59.6%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	57.2%	72.1%	59.6%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	57.2%	72.1%	59.6%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	57.2%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	57.2%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	57.2%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	36.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	55.7%	45.2%	56.1%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	63.1%	45.2%	56.1%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	63.1%	45.2%	56.1%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	47.6%	67.8%	63.1%	45.2%	56.1%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	64.2%	67.8%	63.1%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	64.2%	67.8%	63.1%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	64.2%	67.8%	63.1%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	64.2%	67.8%	63.1%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	64.2%	67.8%	63.1%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	64.2%	62.7%	70.0%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	64.2%	62.7%	70.0%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	64.2%	62.7%	70.0%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	67.9%	62.7%	70.0%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	67.9%	62.7%	70.0%	42.5%	56.1%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	53.4%	58.9%	61.0%	49.2%	23.6%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	61.0%	49.2%	23.6%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	61.0%	49.2%	23.6%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	58.0%	49.2%	22.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	58.0%	49.2%	22.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	58.0%	49.2%	22.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	53.4%	58.8%	58.0%	49.2%	22.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	59.4%	58.8%	58.0%	44.4%	22.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	59.4%	58.8%	58.0%	44.4%	22.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	59.4%	58.8%	58.0%	44.4%	22.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	59.4%	58.8%	58.0%	44.4%	22.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	59.4%	57.7%	60.0%	44.4%	22.3%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	59.4%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	59.4%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	59.4%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	60.0%	44.5%	22.3%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	36.2%	44.5%	15.9%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	36.2%	44.5%	15.9%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	36.2%	44.5%	15.9%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	43.1%	57.8%	36.2%	44.5%	15.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	41.8%	57.8%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	41.8%	57.8%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	41.8%	57.8%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	41.8%	57.8%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	41.8%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	41.8%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	41.8%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	41.8%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	46.3%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	46.3%	55.6%	36.2%	41.2%	15.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	65.1°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	64.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	64.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	63.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	61.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗