— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
87¢
aifs
81¢
wn2
76¢
nbm
53¢
hres
50¢
icon
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.945 vs climatology 9.067.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape