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KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 26 · 10:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
AIFS
81%
WN2
76%
HRES
50%
ICON
24%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u
VS
ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00AIFS Single: 81.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:0009-26 07:4309-26 09:1309-26 10:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:0081.0%86.6%76.1%50.0%24.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:0081.0%86.6%76.1%50.0%24.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:0081.0%86.6%76.1%50.0%24.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:0081.0%86.6%76.1%50.0%24.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:0081.0%86.6%76.1%50.0%24.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%70.0°F5.0°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
AIFS Single81%69.4°F5.6°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%68.2°F5.2°F2026-09-25 18:00Pending
National Blend53%65.0°F6.5°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS HRES50%64.5°F6.4°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
ICON24%57.6°F9.8°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 26 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗