— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
97¢
wn2
72¢
hres
70¢
aifs
65¢
ndfd
59¢
eps
52¢
icon
44¢
nbm
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F31¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,625 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 9.039.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape