KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 03 · 07:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

65%

52%

44%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.80u · ICON −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T04:21:27+00:00	54.8%	66.9%	83.6%	66.7%	47.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	54.8%	66.9%	71.6%	66.7%	51.7%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	54.8%	66.9%	71.6%	66.7%	51.7%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	54.8%	66.9%	71.6%	66.7%	51.7%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	54.8%	66.9%	71.6%	66.7%	51.7%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	51.7%	66.9%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	51.7%	66.9%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	51.7%	66.9%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	51.7%	66.9%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	51.7%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	51.7%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	51.7%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	51.7%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	51.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	71.6%	49.2%	20.5%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	79.1%	49.2%	20.5%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	79.1%	49.2%	20.5%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	61.1%	51.0%	79.1%	49.2%	20.5%
2026-09-29T19:28:15+00:00	36.5%	51.0%	79.1%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	36.5%	51.0%	79.1%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	36.5%	51.0%	79.1%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	36.5%	51.0%	79.1%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	36.5%	51.0%	79.1%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	36.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	36.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	36.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	36.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	58.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	58.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	58.5%	52.1%	73.7%	54.0%	20.5%
2026-10-01T03:11:29+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	87.7%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	87.7%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	87.7%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	82.0%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	82.0%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	76.2%	56.3%	82.0%	73.4%	56.1%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	78.6%	56.3%	82.0%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	78.6%	56.3%	82.0%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	78.6%	56.3%	82.0%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	78.6%	56.3%	82.0%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	78.6%	56.3%	82.0%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	78.6%	52.2%	85.1%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	78.6%	52.2%	85.1%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	78.6%	52.2%	85.1%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	76.5%	52.2%	85.1%	69.5%	56.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	76.5%	52.2%	85.0%	69.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	85.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	85.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	85.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	78.7%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	72.4%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	72.4%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	72.4%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	72.4%	53.2%	80.0%	61.5%	56.1%
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	72.4%	53.2%	80.0%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	72.4%	55.5%	80.8%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	72.4%	55.5%	80.8%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	72.4%	55.5%	80.8%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	69.0%	55.5%	80.8%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	69.0%	55.5%	80.8%	62.6%	56.1%
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	81.4%	69.5%	44.4%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	81.4%	69.5%	44.4%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	81.4%	69.5%	44.4%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	72.0%	69.5%	44.4%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	72.0%	69.5%	44.4%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	65.4%	52.2%	72.0%	69.5%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗