— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
98¢
eps
98¢
wn2
97¢
hres
94¢
icon
65¢
nbm
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,324 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.2 vs climatology 9.08.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE58 · opened 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape