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KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Sep 27 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
EPS
98%
WN2
97%
HRES
94%
ICON
65%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 81.4¢Risks 81.40u
VS
ICONNO 18.6¢Risks 18.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.60u · ICON −18.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 97.7% · 2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.5% · 2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.3% · 2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 94.5% · 2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00ICON: 65.1% · 2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:0009-27 07:5109-27 09:2209-27 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:0097.7%97.5%97.3%94.5%65.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:0097.7%97.5%97.3%94.5%65.1%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:0097.7%97.5%97.3%94.5%65.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:0097.7%97.5%97.3%94.5%65.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:0097.7%97.5%97.3%94.5%65.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%68.6°F5.6°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble98%66.8°F4.8°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 297%67.6°F5.2°F2026-09-26 18:00Pending
IFS HRES94%67.7°F6.4°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
ICON65%61.3°F9.8°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
National Blend56%58.5°F6.6°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE58
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗