— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
98¢
eps
94¢
wn2
92¢
hres
90¢
icon
57¢
nbm
50¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,677 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.523 vs climatology 9.028.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape