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KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
EPS
94%
WN2
92%
HRES
90%
ICON
57%
Consensus
91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u
VS
ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.55u · ICON −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.2% · 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.2% · 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00IFS HRES: 90.1% · 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00ICON: 57.3% · 2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00ICON: 57.3% · 2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00ICON: 57.3% · 2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00ICON: 57.3% · 2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:0009-27 11:3709-27 13:0709-27 13:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:0094.9%94.2%92.2%90.1%57.3%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:0094.9%94.2%92.2%90.1%57.3%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:0094.9%94.2%92.2%90.1%57.3%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:0097.6%94.2%92.2%90.1%57.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%70.5°F5.6°F2026-09-27 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%66.4°F4.4°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%66.4°F4.9°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
IFS HRES90%67.7°F6.4°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
ICON57%61.3°F9.8°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
National Blend50%59.5°F5.5°F2026-09-27 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 27 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗