— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
aifs
96¢
wn2
88¢
hres
74¢
icon
72¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F10¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,374 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.198 vs climatology 9.067.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape