KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

88%

74%

72%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.9¢Risks 84.90u

ICONNO 15.1¢Risks 15.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.10u · ICON −15.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	74.4%	74.0%	40.3%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	74.4%	74.0%	40.3%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	74.4%	74.0%	70.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	54.9%	74.0%	70.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	54.9%	74.0%	70.9%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	64.0%	83.6%	54.9%	74.0%	70.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	91.8%	83.6%	54.9%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	91.8%	83.6%	54.9%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	91.8%	83.6%	54.9%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	91.8%	83.6%	54.9%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	91.8%	83.6%	54.9%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	91.8%	82.0%	74.6%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	91.8%	82.0%	74.6%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	91.8%	82.0%	74.6%	58.9%	70.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	74.6%	58.9%	71.0%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	74.6%	58.9%	71.0%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	74.6%	58.9%	71.0%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	74.6%	58.9%	71.0%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	82.3%	58.9%	63.1%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	82.3%	58.9%	63.1%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	82.3%	58.9%	63.1%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	95.8%	81.9%	82.3%	58.9%	63.1%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	82.3%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	82.3%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	82.3%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	82.3%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	84.1%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T04:21:28+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	73.1%	64.7%	63.1%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	63.8%	64.7%	75.4%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	63.8%	64.7%	75.4%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	63.8%	64.7%	75.4%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	86.3%	81.9%	63.8%	64.7%	75.4%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	84.5%	81.9%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	84.5%	81.9%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	84.5%	81.9%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	84.5%	81.9%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	84.5%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	84.5%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	84.5%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	84.5%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	78.6%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	78.6%	83.1%	63.8%	80.0%	75.4%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	81.1%	63.5%	76.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	63.5%	76.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	63.5%	76.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	63.5%	76.4%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	63.5%	76.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	90.7%	83.6%	86.3%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	98.8%	83.6%	86.3%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	98.8%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	98.8%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	98.8%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	76.4%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	92.5%	79.9%	72.3%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	91.0%	79.9%	72.3%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	91.0%	79.9%	72.3%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	97.5%	97.9%	91.0%	79.9%	72.3%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	98.1%	97.9%	91.0%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	98.1%	97.9%	91.0%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	98.1%	97.9%	91.0%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	98.1%	97.9%	91.0%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	98.1%	97.9%	91.0%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	98.1%	97.5%	87.7%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	98.1%	97.5%	87.7%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	98.1%	97.5%	87.7%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	95.6%	97.5%	87.7%	74.5%	72.3%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	95.6%	97.5%	87.7%	74.5%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	67.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	72%	64.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	60.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗