— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
92¢
aifs
91¢
rrfs
89¢
eps
68¢
hres
63¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,425 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.945 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape