KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

68%

63%

37%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

ICONNO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.60u · ICON −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	65.0%	70.6%	46.5%	69.1%	63.5%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	65.0%	70.6%	46.5%	69.1%	43.8%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	65.0%	70.6%	59.4%	69.1%	43.8%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	65.0%	70.6%	59.4%	69.1%	43.8%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	65.0%	70.6%	59.4%	69.1%	43.8%
2026-09-29T19:28:15+00:00	71.5%	70.6%	59.4%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	71.5%	70.6%	59.4%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	71.5%	70.6%	59.4%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	71.5%	70.6%	59.4%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	71.5%	70.6%	59.4%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	71.5%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	71.5%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	71.5%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	71.5%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	82.0%	71.3%	65.7%	50.0%	43.8%
2026-10-01T03:11:29+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	74.4%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	74.4%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	74.4%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	72.8%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	72.8%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	89.9%	90.3%	72.8%	60.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	91.6%	90.3%	72.8%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	91.6%	90.3%	72.8%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	91.6%	90.3%	72.8%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	91.6%	90.3%	72.8%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	91.6%	90.3%	72.8%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	91.6%	75.9%	72.3%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	91.6%	75.9%	72.3%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	91.6%	75.9%	72.3%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	90.5%	75.9%	72.3%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	90.5%	75.9%	72.3%	56.2%	56.7%
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	96.0%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	96.0%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	96.0%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	93.6%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	93.6%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	86.6%	73.0%	93.6%	56.8%	48.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	86.3%	73.0%	93.6%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	86.3%	73.0%	93.6%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	86.3%	73.0%	93.6%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	86.3%	73.0%	93.6%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	86.3%	68.0%	92.1%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	86.3%	68.0%	92.1%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	86.3%	68.0%	92.1%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	86.3%	68.0%	92.1%	62.6%	36.7%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	90.6%	68.0%	92.1%	62.6%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	64.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
ICON	37%	62.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗