— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
98¢
wn2
98¢
eps
95¢
hres
92¢
icon
74¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F27¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,630 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.697 vs climatology 9.027.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape