KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

92%

74%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.1¢Risks 86.05u

ICONNO 13.9¢Risks 13.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.95u · ICON −13.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	43.6%	79.7%	71.0%	82.7%	19.5%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	43.6%	79.7%	71.0%	82.7%	19.5%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	43.6%	79.7%	71.0%	82.7%	19.5%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	66.7%	79.7%	71.0%	82.8%	19.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	66.7%	79.7%	71.0%	82.8%	19.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	71.0%	82.8%	19.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	71.0%	82.8%	19.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	77.0%	82.8%	58.9%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	77.0%	82.8%	58.9%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	77.0%	82.8%	58.9%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	66.7%	79.2%	77.0%	82.8%	58.9%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	51.4%	79.2%	77.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	51.4%	79.2%	77.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	51.4%	79.2%	77.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	51.4%	79.2%	77.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	51.4%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	51.4%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	51.4%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	51.4%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	41.5%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	41.5%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	41.5%	79.7%	71.0%	82.4%	58.9%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	80.3%	95.1%	92.7%	82.0%	36.5%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	80.3%	95.1%	92.7%	82.0%	73.8%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	80.3%	95.1%	89.7%	82.0%	73.8%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	80.3%	95.1%	89.7%	82.0%	73.8%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	80.3%	95.1%	89.7%	82.0%	73.8%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	99.1%	95.1%	89.7%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	99.1%	95.1%	89.7%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	99.1%	95.1%	89.7%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	99.1%	95.1%	89.7%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	99.1%	95.1%	89.7%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	99.1%	94.9%	97.9%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	99.1%	94.9%	97.9%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	99.1%	94.9%	97.9%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	98.3%	94.9%	97.9%	91.9%	73.8%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	98.3%	94.9%	97.9%	91.9%	73.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	66.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	67.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	59.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 28 · 11:46 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗