— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
94¢
aifs
92¢
eps
91¢
hres
80¢
nbm
69¢
icon
62¢
ndfd
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F12¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,630 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.697 vs climatology 9.027.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-09-29T04:21:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape