KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 01 · 14:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

91%

80%

62%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 77.95u

ICONNO 22.1¢Risks 22.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.05u · ICON −22.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-29T04:21:28+00:00	28.2%	67.5%	55.7%	73.0%	50.8%
2026-09-29T05:06:55+00:00	28.2%	67.5%	38.7%	73.0%	79.2%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	28.2%	67.5%	38.7%	73.0%	79.2%
2026-09-29T06:37:10+00:00	28.2%	67.5%	38.7%	73.0%	79.2%
2026-09-29T07:22:36+00:00	28.2%	67.5%	38.7%	73.0%	79.2%
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00	44.0%	67.5%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	44.0%	67.5%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00	44.0%	67.5%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00	44.0%	67.5%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00	44.0%	79.2%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T11:54:07+00:00	44.0%	79.2%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	44.0%	79.2%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T13:24:17+00:00	44.0%	79.2%	38.7%	37.6%	79.2%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	38.1%	79.2%	38.7%	37.0%	79.3%
2026-09-29T14:56:56+00:00	38.1%	79.2%	38.7%	37.0%	79.3%
2026-09-29T15:42:19+00:00	38.1%	79.3%	38.7%	37.0%	79.3%
2026-09-29T16:27:42+00:00	38.1%	79.3%	38.7%	37.0%	65.8%
2026-09-29T17:12:52+00:00	38.1%	79.3%	63.8%	37.0%	65.8%
2026-09-29T17:57:59+00:00	38.1%	79.3%	63.8%	37.0%	65.8%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	38.1%	79.3%	63.8%	37.0%	65.8%
2026-09-29T19:28:15+00:00	56.7%	79.3%	63.8%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	56.7%	79.3%	63.8%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T20:58:48+00:00	56.7%	79.3%	63.8%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T21:43:56+00:00	56.7%	79.3%	63.8%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	56.7%	79.3%	63.8%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T23:14:16+00:00	56.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-29T23:59:28+00:00	56.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T00:44:34+00:00	56.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T01:29:52+00:00	56.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T03:00:11+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T03:45:23+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	65.8%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	73.1%	44.6%	24.6%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	44.6%	24.6%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	44.6%	24.6%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	44.6%	24.6%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	44.6%	24.6%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	72.7%	80.4%	83.4%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	89.6%	80.4%	83.4%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	89.6%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	89.6%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	89.6%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	67.3%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.6%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	67.3%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.5%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	67.3%	87.9%	83.6%	71.5%	24.5%
2026-10-01T03:11:29+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.2%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.2%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.2%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.9%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.9%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	95.6%	87.4%	94.9%	85.4%	61.5%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	94.0%	87.4%	94.9%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	94.0%	87.4%	94.9%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	94.0%	87.4%	94.9%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	94.0%	87.4%	94.9%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	94.0%	87.4%	94.9%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	94.4%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	94.4%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	94.0%	90.7%	94.4%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	92.0%	90.7%	94.4%	79.9%	61.5%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	91.7%	91.1%	94.4%	79.9%	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	65.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	65.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	63.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗