— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
96¢
wn2
89¢
aifs
83¢
nbm
76¢
rrfs
65¢
hres
64¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
47¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F30¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,835 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.525 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape