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KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
96%
WN2
89%
AIFS
83%
HRES
64%
ICON
47%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u
VS
ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.45u · ICON −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00AIFS Single: 83.4% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.9% · 2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.4% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.5% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.5% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.5% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.5% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.5% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.4% · 2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.3% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.9% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00IFS HRES: 64.0% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00ICON: 42.9% · 2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:00ICON: 42.9% · 2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:00ICON: 42.9% · 2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00ICON: 42.9% · 2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:00ICON: 42.9% · 2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:00ICON: 46.6% · 2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0010-01 07:4210-06 07:5410-06 14:43
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:0095.3%92.9%72.4%79.8%—
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:0095.3%92.9%72.4%79.8%—
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:0095.3%92.9%72.4%79.8%—
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:0095.3%92.9%72.4%79.8%—
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:0095.3%92.9%72.4%79.8%—
2026-10-06T04:07:56+00:0086.1%86.4%88.3%64.0%42.9%
2026-10-06T04:53:31+00:0086.1%86.4%88.3%64.0%42.9%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%42.9%
2026-10-06T06:23:53+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%42.9%
2026-10-06T07:08:59+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%42.9%
2026-10-06T07:54:06+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T08:39:13+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T09:24:23+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T10:09:29+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:0086.1%86.4%87.7%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:0086.1%96.5%88.9%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T12:24:49+00:0086.1%96.5%88.9%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T13:09:56+00:0086.1%96.5%88.9%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T13:55:04+00:0083.3%96.5%88.9%64.0%46.6%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:0083.4%96.5%88.9%64.0%46.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble96%71.0°F3.0°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 289%69.3°F3.1°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%69.5°F4.1°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
National Blend76%67.0°F2.1°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending
IFS HRES64%67.1°F4.5°F2026-10-05 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-06 03:00Pending
ICON47%65.2°F3.5°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗