— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
93¢
rrfs
77¢
aifs
69¢
wn2
62¢
ndfd
59¢
hres
32¢
nbm
21¢
icon
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F36¢
68–69°F38¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,835 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.525 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape