KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

69%

62%

32%

18%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T14:55:01+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	78.8%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T15:40:20+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	78.8%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T16:25:25+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	78.8%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T17:10:32+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T17:55:39+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T19:25:57+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	73.3%	68.5%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-03T20:56:19+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-03T21:41:26+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-03T22:26:32+00:00	86.4%	61.8%	80.2%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-03T23:11:38+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T01:27:01+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T02:12:19+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T02:57:29+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T03:43:07+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T04:28:42+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	77.3%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	79.5%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	79.5%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	86.4%	59.9%	79.5%	77.1%	27.9%
2026-10-04T07:29:49+00:00	88.4%	59.9%	79.5%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	88.4%	59.9%	79.5%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	88.4%	59.9%	79.5%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	88.4%	59.9%	79.5%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	88.4%	59.9%	79.5%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	88.4%	73.7%	76.9%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	88.4%	73.7%	76.9%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	88.4%	73.7%	76.9%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	88.4%	73.7%	76.9%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	80.7%	73.4%	76.8%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	80.7%	73.4%	76.8%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	80.7%	73.7%	76.8%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	80.7%	73.7%	76.8%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	80.7%	73.7%	67.7%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	80.7%	73.7%	67.7%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	80.7%	73.7%	67.7%	82.1%	48.3%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	81.3%	73.7%	67.7%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	81.3%	73.7%	67.7%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	81.3%	73.7%	67.7%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	81.3%	73.7%	67.7%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	81.3%	73.7%	67.7%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	81.3%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	81.3%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	81.3%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	77.6%	76.1%	75.9%	54.0%	45.0%
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	78.3%	76.1%	75.9%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	78.3%	76.1%	75.9%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	78.3%	76.1%	75.9%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	78.3%	76.1%	75.9%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	78.3%	76.1%	75.9%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	78.3%	71.2%	74.4%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	78.3%	71.2%	74.4%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	78.3%	71.2%	74.4%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	76.2%	71.2%	74.4%	46.4%	50.0%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	76.2%	71.1%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	76.2%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	51.0%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	73.3%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	73.3%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	73.3%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	73.3%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	73.3%	70.9%	74.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	73.3%	72.6%	72.4%	46.4%	24.5%
2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	71.9%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	71.9%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	71.9%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	67.4%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	67.4%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00	68.6%	87.6%	67.4%	46.4%	25.8%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	67.4%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	67.4%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	67.4%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00	70.3%	87.6%	67.4%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00	70.3%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00	70.3%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00	70.3%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00	70.3%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T04:20:26+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	63.9%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T05:06:58+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	62.6%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T05:52:22+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	62.6%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T06:37:48+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	62.6%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T07:23:38+00:00	69.4%	88.9%	62.6%	34.8%	37.8%
2026-10-07T08:09:29+00:00	68.2%	88.9%	62.6%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T08:54:47+00:00	68.2%	88.9%	62.6%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T09:39:54+00:00	68.2%	88.9%	62.6%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T10:25:19+00:00	68.2%	88.9%	62.6%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T11:10:41+00:00	68.2%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T11:56:01+00:00	68.2%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T12:41:07+00:00	68.2%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T13:26:15+00:00	70.8%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T14:17:33+00:00	70.9%	91.6%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T15:02:41+00:00	70.9%	91.6%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T15:47:47+00:00	70.9%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T16:33:24+00:00	70.9%	91.7%	60.8%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	70.9%	91.7%	58.1%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	70.9%	91.7%	58.1%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	70.9%	91.7%	58.1%	36.4%	28.6%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	67.4%	91.7%	58.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	67.4%	91.7%	58.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	67.4%	91.7%	58.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	67.4%	91.7%	58.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	67.4%	91.7%	58.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	67.4%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	67.4%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	67.4%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T03:06:45+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	51.4%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	62.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	62.1%	32.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	69.1%	92.8%	62.1%	32.5%	18.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	72.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	66.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗