— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
82¢
wn2
71¢
hres
67¢
icon
62¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
52¢
nbm
45¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F31¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,887 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape