KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

67%

62%

52%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

EPSNO 33.2¢Risks 33.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.25u · EPS −33.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	63.0%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	63.0%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	63.0%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	68.7%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	68.7%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	61.1%	67.2%	68.7%	44.0%	54.6%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	85.5%	67.2%	68.7%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	85.5%	67.2%	68.7%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	85.5%	67.2%	68.7%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	85.5%	67.2%	68.7%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	85.5%	52.0%	70.9%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	85.5%	52.0%	70.9%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	85.5%	52.0%	70.9%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	85.5%	52.0%	70.9%	67.3%	62.2%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	81.5%	52.0%	70.9%	67.3%	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	72.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	70.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 03 · 03:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗